So some really basic things here. Price for a item is based on the equilibrium of supply and demand. Cool. Supply is replenished to maintain pace with demand. Also cool. However, we demand suddenly outstrips supply, we get limited supply. Not so cool, but as long as that demand is sustained, supply will catch up eventually. Now here is the fun part, sometimes people just go nuts and create inflated short term demand. Add in some crappy people who exploit this by buying what limited stock there is to make a profit, (price gouging) and everything become that much worse give us shortages like the large number of images of empty racks. And so it is today with toilet paper.

I guess we are well into the second week when I first started noticing bins not being quite a full in my local shops. Mostly frozen food, beans, rice, and pasta…. and toilet paper. The funny thing is, I can always find any of the above listed items if I look around enough, but TP, no where! So from a supply side point of view, what is going on?

Basically demand is simply being artificially pushed forward. Demand is not really up, in the sense that people are really using all this paper. (As far as I know), but instead people are buying and hording, and others are gauging, causing a panic which just feeds on itself. (By the way, you people suck). But somewhere, is garages all over the US, are stocks and stocks of TP. Now if people were REALLY worried about cleaning after using the bathroom, they should get a bidet. Works great, used all over the world. Had one for a few years, Installed it myself in less then an hour. But that will be another post.

Now add to this panic hand sanitizer, wipes masks, etc.. all of which are harder to increase supply and now we have a public health problem on our hands.

But I have noticed something change just today, which is why I wanted to write this. Some things are coming back. Not all, but those that were closer in the supply line are on the shelves and staying on the shelves. I’ve also noticed today, not many people were shopping and most people where getting just a few things. Last week it seemed every other shopper has a overfull cart. Whats going on? I think the panic may be at peak. Stores are starting to limit the number of items people can buy, those that are gouging are getting called out, some getting their online selling accounts closed.

So that got me thinking, what happens when those induced to panic, have enough? Supply will just as suddenly outstrip demand. I mean, buy 100 roles of TP, I do not think you are going to be buying anymore for awhile. Same with frozen pizza, masks, pasta, and all the other stuff that people have been grabbing. I think we may see some REALLY good sales soon.

• update: I wrote this on Sunday, and its now Wednesday in the bay area. We are on lock-down (shelter in place) I went to Costco earlier today to get something and it was pretty empty, lots of stock. I think we are already starting to see the end of the panic.

BTW, check this video below. There are LOTS of places like this all over the place. Don’t worry, we have TP.

level 7Hahnsolo11347 points·1 hour ago

Beer has food value but food has no beer value

Apple’s copyright infringement claim starts with the observation that jailbroken iPhones depend on modified versions of Apple’s bootloader and operating system software. True enough — we said as much in our technical white paper describing the jailbreak process. But the courts have long recognized that copying software while reverse engineering is a fair use when done for purposes of fostering interoperability with independently created software, a body of law that Apple conveniently fails to mention.

Its the last bit we want to focus on, ‘copying software while reverse engineering is a fair use when done for purposes of fostering interoperability with independently created software’. All those jailbreak app you are running fall into this category.

As to the DMCA claim Apple makes, John make a very good point aurguing FUD. ‘ ... One need only transpose Apple’s arguments to the world of automobiles to recognize their absurdity. Sure, GM might tell us that, for our own safety, all servicing should be done by an authorized GM dealer using only genuine GM parts ….’

Now I do not expect the legal games to end here.  Apple makes ~.30 for every $1.00 sold in the Apple store, so its very much in their interest to have ALL applications sold through them. However, part of what makes the iphone popular is some of the applications that Apple is trying to block. If you were to look at my top 10 jailbreak apps list,  you can see why.

Thanks for all the suggestions!  The treasure hunt went quite well and it seems all the kids had a great time.

We started out playing ‘Are you smarter then a 5th grader’.  3 Questions a round. If the adults won the round,  chore chard is awarded to which they can do whatever the like with it.  If the kids won, a Christmas card is given with 1 word in it.  6 cards total.  The words were: “black”, “face”, “music”, “look”, “behind”, “plate”.  Now, once they got all 6 cards, they were then handed 6 clues to find pieces of the BMW symbol hidden around the house.  Once they collected the puzzle pieces, they could tell it was my car and ran out to it.  It took them a while to figure out to press the face plate button, but they got it.  When they pressed the button, the final clue fell out guiding them to a book hidden in the house.  This is a fake book.  Inside it is a key.  The key opens the lock on the treasure chest.  Inside the chest was their gifts.. Pirate treasure, or in the case LOTS and LOTS of $1.

…… </update>

Ok, I put this on every year and it works like this..

There are a series of games the kids play.  Normally vs. their parents.  Each time they win one of the games, they get a clue.  The collection of these clues leads them to the treasure, which are their gifts and the grandparents gift. (kids are between 18 and 11)

So this year, I’m having a tough time thinking of good clues.  I want to have a clue that would sent the kids to my car and have them press the ‘show control face’ on my radio.  Hidden in there will be another clue to.. somewhere.

So the help I’m looking for this is.. What would be a good clue to bring them to the car and press the control button, and what be a good clue from there to a hiding place? (I still do not know where I will hide the actual treasure chest.  (thinking dryer?, a cabinet?, truck of another car?)

The trick this time is.. The clue to my car will be given out word by word.  So they will have to put the words together to figure out the clue.  The more games they win, the more words they get, the easier the clue!

So tweeters, can someone help me out on a good clue to my car, and to show the retractable face, and another clue to some other spot.

Oh… and, I need it by 3:00 pm.  I’m driving up at 10:00am.    The game starts at 6:00 pm.

Here are image of the radio if that helps.

Now enter the iPhone.

I was already getting sloppy knowing I had online access with the treo, but the iPhone has taken it to a completely new level. I keep the iPhone connected to the charger on my night stand. So if I cannot sleep, or forgot to do something, I do not have to get up, I just grab the iPhone and I’m online. Have to meet someone somewhere?  I will wait till I’m out of the house before I bother to look up where I’m going. I assume I have the name of the place in an email or twitter somewhere, type the name of the place in google-maps and go from there. It’s gotten so bad, that when I wake up, the first thing I do is check email. Why? just because I can. And I end up lazing in bed an extra 15 min.  Ahh… I do not even bother booting up the computer till I have my coffee now.

There is a limit though; when I start checking twitter first thing in the morning, then I know I’m over connected.

What is even more funny is the XKCD’s cartoon for today (or tomorrow) …

I already wrote the first draft of this post waiting for a friend at a restaurant in SF before reading my online comics.  Timing is a funny thing.

First off, I have to point out that I’m on the worse or near the worse softball team in the history of the game, so there is no reason to risk life and limb since there is no way were going to win anyway.  However in today’s game, I was playing left field and a pop fly heads out a bit past the foul line. So when you think about it … here I am running at full speed (remember I’m one of the fastest guys on a team of 20 and 30 year olds) towards and over who-knows-what with my head is up and tracking the ball, so I cannot see where I’m going. And the field is not perfect, gopher holes and grass patches here and there. One wrong step and you can go head over heals.

Now, I get near the ball, and remember I’m at FULL speed at around ~15mph and at 174lbs. To make the catch, I have to LEAP … horizontally … arm extended … to reach the ball.  Well, gravity is going to take over at some point, and when you think about it, I’m going to leap at full speed, with extended arm, and there is nothing left to land on but my chest! And when you think about it … this is not something a 40+ year old man should be doing. Once you hit the ground, forget any control, your just going to roll and slide until you stop. Just does not seem like a smart idea.

But I will say this, it looked cool.  The team agreed, best catch of the season.  So I guess its worth it.  But lets see what I think tomorrow once the bodily abuse kicks in.

{update} I was just informed they have always owned them.  I’m going to send an email and try to get more info on what I saw.  Have anyone else seen such messages?

What does this mean?  Not much except its the first example I’ve seen of iPhone app creators starting to buy up other apps. I expect to see a lot more of this over time. I would expect that in the next few months we will see more and more consolidation. Perhaps in Q2’09 we should see super shops that not only spit out lots of apps, but buy and sell apps like commodities. Lets hope we do not see the wild movements like we are seeing in the stock market.

Well, now I’m a bit older.  

In the last few years I’ve been working on getting back in shape, which is a slight misnomer since I was never really in shape in the first place.  Most of my time in my 20’s and 30’s were either behind a guitar or a computer, neither one conducive to exercise.  This year I decided to start playing softball. 

Now.. for those of you who have never played baseball or softball for that matter; the infield normally is composed of a reasonably fine dirt.  Well, the ball fields in Oakland, although still pretty good, are a bit rougher.  

I’ve been playing most of this year in the very lite nylon hiking pants I wore in Costa Rica and finally decided to buy proper baseball pants.  

And it got me thinking.. Sliding in baseball.  

I mean, when you really think about it.. Your kinda asking for it in a way.  I mean, think about this way.. I’m a full grown man at around 173lbs running at full speed, and I’m the fastest guy on the team, over 90 feet towards a bag sitting in field of dirt. So at full speed (~15mph?) I’m going to voluntarily bend my right leg, put all my weight on it and slide, on this dirt, till I stop.  Just thinking about it.. you realise, this does not seem like a sane thing to do.

Now it happens that in today’s game I tried to beat a throw to second base and did slide at full speed in the dirt. You don’t think about it, or feel it at the time, but I can feel it a bit now. Nothing but a small scrape..  But still.. when you think about… and don’t get me started on head first slides.