Image from: http://blog.laptopmag.com

This has been building up for sometime.  As with the Great Mobile War and Browser War, the Great Office Cloud War has 3 players, Google, Apple and now Microsoft.

In the beginning, there was Google Docs.  Google docs were pretty simple but had one great advantage.  You could start a doc on one machine, go to another and there it was, all through a web browser. Did not matter what OS.  Simple enough but amazing for people like me.  Then the fact I could access on a tablet and somewhat on a good phone was even better!   And then I could share it?  Crazy.  But Microsoft was not too worried about that, they were more concerned with Firefox and Chrome finally taking market share away from I.E.

As time goes on Google’s Docs get more sophisticated and connected with Gmail and Google Drive and other 3rd party apps, you could run your office completely in the cloud.  And many people did. Especially those of us in the Valley in startup land.  Now  Microsoft was starting to pay attention, although its was mostly geeks and start up companies with little money that were dropping office.

However when Apple decided to drop Office and create their own work suite did bells start to go off at Microsoft.  Suddenly the cash cow that did not seem to ever have an end, was losing market share.  Making things worse is more and more people were beginning to use tablet and mobile devices at work, both of which were controlled by Google and Apple.  Suddenly the battle lines were drawn.  The next king of the Office would be the service that can provide powerful tools as we are used to with:

1) Anywhere anytime cloud support,

2) Real-time Collaboration, and

3) Support on any device from any OS.

Microsoft was weak on all three fronts.  Office could not fully run in the cloud, real-time collaboration required expensive 3rd party tools and Apple and Google owned the tablet and mobile space.

But of course, this is Microsoft, they do what they always do when threaten, throw a bunch of money at it, screw it up, then throw more money and finally get competitive.

Fast forward to the post Balmer era and we are seeing Microsoft move into cloud based services in a big way. So much so that soon Microsoft’s biggest product will no longer be Windows, or Office, or XBox, but Azure, their cloud service. Many people have not heard of Azure but it will become center all Microsoft services, many of which will be called 365. Office 365, Windows 365 and even Video 365, more on Video 365 later. Also we have seen Microsoft buy Acompli and rebrand it as Outlook for mobile and I recently downloaded OneNote on my iPad. Microsoft is making a big push into cloud services on non windows devices with its Office 365 suite soon to be followed by Windows itself.

So why is Microsoft moving so hard and so fast? Because they have already lost out on the mobile phone market and with Google drive and Docs and now Apple releasing iWork on iCloud, allowing anyone to use Apple Office tools, they are seeing a threat to its dominance with MS Office. Worse, a new generation of users are not interested in buying software licenses but instead, ‘renting’ services for only when they need it and typically through a cloud service, and the market is growing VERY fast. Further, options like ChromeBook using the Google suite is a far cheaper and almost as effective means for running a virtual office. Many users, myself included, do pretty much all their work on the cloud using cloud based apps. I have dropbox for my files, use google docs for most of my writing and collaborating and even now I’m writing the second part of this post on my ipad after starting it last night on my main PC. Microsoft knows it needs to moving its services to satisfy how a new generation of workers demand to be able to work; anywhere, anytime, on anything.

So what to watch..  Microsoft is not giving up on Windows phone but they know the need to get their services on the devices people are using, that means Android and iOS.  I do not imagine Apple or Google is going to be too excited to help Microsoft out, but I know who might.  Samsung.  Samsung is one of the largest competitors to Apple in the mobile market.  Although losing some space recently, they are not the ones to give up.  I expect Samsung to fight for market share as well as keep on the leading edge with wearable and even VR displays.  Microsoft needs a partner like Samsung to quickly make a play for getting their office apps on mobile devices quickly.  There is not enough time to ‘wait’ for Microsoft phones to one day become a market player.

Another battle front just starting to open is micro PC devices.  Right now you can get a cheap Chromebook to pretty much do 90% of your information processing needs.  However, watch for the Microsoft ‘Stick’ to come onto the scene running Windows 10.  This device will fight for ownership of your TV’s HDMI port just as ChromeCast has done.  And VR?  Who has NOT seen Microsoft’s AR device preview called HoloLens?

Times they are a changing. The days of Microsoft and everyone else is gone, Microsoft knows this.  Its going to be a Battle Royal!

image from netsolutionsny.com

I upgraded from Windows 7 to 8 then 8.1  I have not had any more major issues with it short of the UX/UI that is basically common knowledge at this point.  I’ve downloaded Windows 10 and although I have not experimented with it too much, its a better experience then 8, so I feel I’m getting the ‘upgrade’ that was promised.  Whats just as cool about this is the fact that I’m getting this for free!  And Microsoft claims I will get all future upgrades for free..  Yeeahh..  Thats … wait.., what?  All upgrades for free?  And then what is this I hear?  They have applied for a trademark for Windows 365 and announced a subscription service?  Hmm.. So we already know about Office 356 going subscriptions, Adobe seems like they are happy with it.  Already on my phone I get my OS upgrades for free, first Apple and then on my Android.  Windows phone I hear will be the same.  A major sea chance is taking place here…

I think the days of waiting for a major OS upgrade from Microsoft is over.  Lets think about it.  One of the major issues with Windows’ security is the fact that many people do not keep their machines up to date.  Browsers were first of the box to deal with this by auto updating just like Flash and Java.  So I can imagine the updates we see from Microsoft every now and again will not just to be bug and security fixes, but changes at the OS core that normally are reserved for numbered OS upgrades.  Also, if you offer it free, you can finally get the army of Windows 7 users to upgrade reducing the number of older OS out there and thus reducing the security risk that Windows is known for.  What if ALL windows users could upgrade for free?  That might make a lot of sense from a security and support point of view.  Now we know XP and Vista and not supported anymore, but with a subscription, and assuming it was cheap enough, they may just upgrade, although I kinda doubt it, its not THAT much to upgrade windows and if you are still on XP or Vista its because you have some legacy software or you just fear change.

But if I have my Windows machine constantly being updated and upgraded, like a browser, then do we really need numbers anymore?  At what point do I go from Windows 10 to Windows 11?  Unless the change the core is so substantial that you HAVE to use an external install and lose your applications, you may as well stop saying Windows, 8,10, 11 or whatever and just say, Windows.  Done.  Or as we have recently learned, Windows 365.  Of course you will still need build numbers just to be sure that the application you bought will still run, but even then I would be there will be some sort of windows service that will run older apps in a completely sanitized box, almost like a virtual machine, to allow older code to work but not expose the current OS to bugs or security threats. And some older code, kind of like what happens with some Apple apps that do not keep up with the upgrade path, simply stop working and your out of luck.

I think the could be the last major ‘Upgrade’ we see from Windows for a long time.  We have Windows 10 coming, but after that, it will be Window 365… until another sea change takes place.