Sigh… have to add a note here. Seems the Model Y does support highspeed charging at max 27w, but not 100w if you wanted to charge you laptop. But it seems nothing to indicated support for USB3.x. Bummed. Thus, unless the console is updated, AND HW3 supports USB 3.x , we have longer to wait. However, my thoughts still have not changed. Further, this can all be done using 2.0, but could be harder given the amount of data we are talking about. Realtime use of dense 3D data at USB2 speeds are unlikely, but in the case of a parking lot, and with smart compression, perhaps.

Most Tesla owners have already taken advantage of a very cool feature of sentry as well as full 360 camera recording. This is not a default feature of the car, instead you need to bring your own USB drive to record the video. So this is pretty important. The car was never intended to let you store recordings, yet, there is a port. So why not? So now we can record anytime, save files by honking the horn and turning on Sentry mode by saying “keep Summer safe”. Further, since its USB we can install Hubs. I was lucky enough to win a Jeda USB hub when I was the 420th suggestion on teslaideas. Pretty cool. I installed it myself and placed my usb stick with two formatted drives; (video, music). Now I have extra my jeda wireless pad reconnected and free ports for my xbox controllers. Sweet.

So what kind of possibilities could we have once we have USB 3.x? Perhaps if you bring your own SSD, not only can we have video, perhaps we can bring our own games, play movies on the screen, etc.. But what would be really interesting to me is FSD. If we can expand memory significantly, perhaps we can keep a longer history of driving data and video on disk to allow machine learning pre-processing. Perhaps every-time we go into a parking lot or structure, we record and keep SLAM generated 3D mapping information about that structure. Further, what if we could generate and store 3D information about everywhere we drive? And what if we could share that with each other as 5G deploys on our cars? Do not want to wait for 5G on the car? Tether a 5G via USB. I can see a case where I put a destination in the map and get 3D mapping information for the whole drive including nearby parking.

What is mind blowing about this is… we can do this today. SLAM solutions are quite mature and could be added into HW3. Add a 2T byte drive and not only can the FSD system using the ML based solutions but cross check this against 3D information stored on SSD. Bad weather, cross check what info we get from the sensors to the 3D dataset.

Personally, parking is one of the hardest thing for FSD. If we have detailed 3D maps, that would reduce the computational load on the car to focus more on the HARDEST FSD challenge out there…. people. We can also look into LiDAR for Tesla again. LiDAR systems are getting cheaper and cheaper with less power requirements. I can see using LiDAR as a supplement to the current ML solution. When trying to nav a crowded parking lot, or dark parking structure, or any parking area with poorly marked spots, a special software solution can be used to employ LiDAR (and event based cameras as well) to improve performance in these unique situations. 90% of the other time, we run the current camera based solution. With extended storage added to the system, we can maintain a GPS sorted dataset of difficult navigation situations, parking areas and contruction. We can share this information with other drivers as well how have the required extended storage.

USB 3, assuming its USB 3 and not just a ‘c’ connector, can open a lot of doors. I’m looking forward to what happens next.

From Reddit of course: https://www.reddit.com/r/nonononoyes/comments/3qp2h7/tesla_autopilot/

All this talk about self driving cars causing accidents, very little about how they avoid them and save lives.  So here is the first video clip of a real world situation where a Tesla avoided an accident by stopping way faster than I could have.  Also note, its wet.  So if a human was driving, there would be a possibly that the human would swerve the car as well, potentially causing another accident. (click the thumbnail to start the gifv.)

ALSO, the car was smart enough not to follow the idiot driver and ‘teach them a lesson’.  Which does bring me to one concern.  How long will it be until someone decide to hack their car to do just that?  Say someone cuts you off; the car can use object recognition to track and follow the other car and then bump them off the road.

Right now, our autonomous cars do not have a voice, but I already know what to expect having grown up with Eddie Murphy comedy.

Eddie Murphy talking car. ( warning NSFW)!!!

Image from http://inhabitat.com/

Now there are exceptions to this of course, but when I tell people that in five years they will no longer need a new car, I get a look like I’m nuts.  But once I explain that you are getting a new(ish) car and its a ‘need’ not want, then they are a little less skeptical.  However, once I give the full explanation, as I’m about to here, gentle readers, you will agree with me and start telling your friends the same thing just to get that ‘your crazy’ look from them.

First, the caveats.  There are people who buy vehicles for work or hobby.  Truck, Van, taxicab or RV for example.  Then there are those that WANT to buy a new car because its a part of their identity, or love high performance, or have that classic that they love to drive.  Then there are those who live near the edge or off the grid with poor or dirt roads.

OK, now that we have the exceptions out of the way, lets talk about your typical citizen living in a urban environment. In five years, that will be the last time you need to buy a new or newish car. How does that figure?  3 things are going to start happening in 5 years and be complete in 15.

In 5 years we will have our first autonomous vehicles on the road. FULLY autonomous meaning we have the legal issues sorted out that these little Google panda cars driving around my neighborhood will no longer need a driver.  This will be huge. The idea that I can use my phone to have a car pick me up and take me where I need to go will be just as convenient as taking my own car. To make this work, there needs to be a lot of these little buggers running around such that I can have a car at my door in 3 min or less.  Assuming Uber has not been sued out of existence, they will be first in line to try and make that happen.  Watch for them to partner with google and some car maker.

In 5 years the price of these little bugs will be 1/10 the cost of a normal car.  They will be fully electric with no frills.  There will be competitors (Apple, Tesla and later other car makers) that will focus on higher end self driving cars, but those will be seen more as luxury than a necessity. The simple ‘autono-cabs’ will be simple, and thus inexpensive such that there will be many of them. So many that in 15 years many of the next generation will question why they need to ever buy a car or even get a drivers license. (By the way, when that happens we will need a new form of ID.)

Parking space, who needs a parking space?  If you live in San Francisco you know parking is a pain. Worse when you are coming home tired and the last thing you want to is run circles around the blocks trying to find a place to park.  That goes away.  Worried about finding parking when you go somewhere?  Don’t worry about it anymore.  The autono-cab will pick you up at your door and drop you off at your location. Suddenly, parking anywhere will be easier and cheaper because of the reduction of demand.  Going to the game? Or big event?  Not only will you not worry about parking, there will be special lanes for electric autono-cabs so you will get there faster then driving?  Why will this happen?  People who run events and the cities authorities where the event takes place does not want traffic anymore then you do.  They want people in and out quickly, without accidents and drunk drivers making a mess of things.  Win.

Range?  Got that covered. I looked into buying a leaf and decided not to.  If I wanted to take a day trip from mountain view to say Napa, or halfmoon bay, or Oakland (hey its kick’en over there) or even SF I could not be sure I would get back unless I was positive I could find a charging station and have the car there long enough to get a charge.  Our little cabs?  Well, being smaller, lighter and battery tech about to double the range of current car battery packs, we only need to go one way.  Odds are these little guys will have a 60-75 mile range, more then enough for a one way trip anywhere in the bay area.

Now, back to the 5 years thing.  So its 2015 (at least at the time of this writing). I just bought a 2013 PIP Prius although once the new Tesla comes out I will sell the Prius and get that.  But lets say I keep it for 5 years and buy a 2018 Tesla. (I almost never buy new). That takes us to 2020.  Many people believe, as I do, that we should start seeing autonomous cars on the road in 2020. I live in Mountain View, which is not ‘Big city’ but dense enough that the first wave of autonomous cars will reach me.  Odds are, like bike sharing, there will be a monthly or yearly fee you can pay for near unlimited rides.  So that means my Tesla stays in the garage unless I need to go somewhere outside of my local area or I want to go for a fun drive. So now that 2018 is taking on less miles and holding onto more value.  So instead of getting a new car in 2025 I can wait until 2030 or longer depending on how often I drive it.

So now we are at 2025. Battery tech will have doubled again (conservatively) making autono-cabs to more specialized public cars cheaper to make.  The autono-cab is mostly a giant tablet now with multiple screens.  Averts help reduce the costs even more. Choice increases as well as we see Apple cars, luxury Lexus and turbo Tesla’s available via an app. My 2018 Tesla is sitting in the garage most of the time and my wife got a new’ish’ car in 2015, so we have two cars that we really do not drive.  It does not make any sense to have 2 cars now, so we will sell one of them.  Now we just need to stretch the remaining car to 2030, which will be easy because again, we do not drive it much.

From www.fastcodesign.com

By 2030 the autonomous car is ubiquitous. There will still be manual cars out there but even they will have ‘safety’ overrides. The number of car accidents plummets, car insurance goes up for some, and no longer exists for others. There are gas stations, but they are also charging station for the autono-cabs.  Owning a car repair shops goes they way of the local newspaper. Traffic actually goes down instead of up even as population increases. There are more people on the road, but traffic is more efficient, almost no accidents to cause backups, no rubber necking and very few breakdowns since the cars know when they need attention and can drive themselves for service. Places like LA see a marked reduction in pollution.  And one of the biggest win IMHO, drop in drunk driving. Buying a car in 2030 does not make much sense.

Now there will be losers in this grand future I’m painting.  Vehicle drivers; cab, truck, bus will be losing their jobs. Mechanics, we will not need as many.  Oil?  Do not need as much of that either. Car insurance, car dealerships, towing services; not a growth industry.  Municipalities will need new revenue (most likely they will tax the cabs per mile). Traffic tickets?  Kiss those dollars goodbye. Toll takers?  That is already disappearing.

So lets recap.  I said that in 5 years, that will be the last time you ‘need’ to buy a new car.  Math review time!  Buy car latest in 2020.  Good for 5+ years.  We should see the first deployments of self driving public cars in 2020.  By 2022, they should cover most urban and sub-urban areas. Since you are driving your car less, you can hang on to it for another 8 years easy which brings us to 2030.  Not so crazy sounding anymore right?  1) So start telling your friends.  2) Make money bets before you explain.  3) Profit!

P.S.  I started telling people this back in May, and started writing this post in June.  So no, I’m not following the crowd, just talking WAY to long to write my posts now-a-days.

Image from http://inhabitat.com/

Ok, so this article on driver-less cabs just popped up saying NY’s Mayor de Blasio just signed with Google to have them put out a fleet of 5000 driver-less cars in Brooklyn and Queens.  They will be called Zippie.  Nice.  And that is not all; order now and get an ATM machine, vending machine spitting out mouthwash to condoms and btw the condoms will be a bit hit because I can see a trend starting on having sex in driverless cars, but that is another post.  They are even going to serve hot pizza!  What about the mess?  A 12 horse power vacuum will take care of that.  A vacumm?  How is that going to clean smeared pizza?

Does this all sound too good to be true by next year?  Yea it does.  Ok, so first off, even Google admits the driver-less car is not ready for sever weather like heavy rains, snow storms and icy roads.  This is NY we are talking about kiddies, if you ever been there in Feb.  Ug.  And serve food?  Its going to be a mess, and I’m sure some jackass will make it a worse mess.  What about legal issues?  Nothing talked about that in the post I read.

So here is what I think.. I think they are going to start putting in the ground work and doing limited tests in 2016.  Sure, you may be able to grab one of these Zippie’s next year, but I have a feeling there will be no food and running during limited times of the year ( good weather only) and limited routes.

Now you may be saying, “why such a downer man”. Actually, I’m pretty excited and looking forward to seeing even a few cabs running in limited conditions in 2016.  I want MORE cities to get in on this. Google will run the program so no one owns it. That is sooner then I would have expected from a legal perspective.  I think its great and cant wait for it.  However, lets not get crazy…. Hot Pizza?  Lets hold off on that for a bit ok?

BTW, Cabbie backlash in 3… 2… 1…

So dont blink people, the future is coming, and coming fast!

What is this? A Big-Rig for ants?

There has been lots of talk about self driving cars and how they will change the world, and they will, but before that happens, a just as big change will come to trucking. Imagine a long line of trucks all super close together getting 2x the gas or electric mileages because of drafting. Drivers would ‘ride’ the truck for 6 hours then stop and a hand off point and a new driver would get in and do another 6 hours. Just like the pony express!! The movement of goods around the country would be faster and cheaper, not to mention less accidents.

In the beginning, I sure we will still require drivers to be in the trucks, but just like with Airline pilots of today, they only spend perhaps 5 or 10 min of actual on hand flying of the aircraft, and that is mostly around taxing.  It will be the same with long hall truckers.  They will take the cab and connect up to the load, insure all the correct info is set into the navigation, then drive to the interstate.  Once up to speed and in the desired lane, they turn on auto cruise and that is about it for the next 6 hours.  I have to think that could really boring.  I would bet truck drivers will be the future superstars of video games…assuming they have wifi/5G on those rigs by then.

BTW, that picture above?  My father was a big rig driver so I know a little bit about how it works.  This is what he drove before he retired.