From www.fastcodesign.com

When it comes to the auto industry the future is coming on at full speed.  Although I think its optimistic to think we will have self driving cars in 5 years, because of both technology and legal reasons, but in 10 I think we will see a large percentage of cars that can drive themselves on the road.  And this will have a huge impact on the practicality of the electric car, and will reduce the number of mechanics significantly.  Why?

One of the biggest reasons people do not buy electric cars is because of range and charging time. Even though Musk is make great strides to make it easier to own and operate an electric with his supercharging station and smart ranging software that will be updated in the current Tesla’s, there are still obstetrical in the way.  Currently, if I wanted an electric only car, I would have to live with around 100 mile or less range unless I buy a Tesla.  And even then, where I live I do not have the ability to put in a 220v charging station meaning it could take 8 plus hours to charge the car.

However, once cars are allowed to drive themselves, things will change in a big way.  Imagine your car takes you to work.  Once it drops you off, it will drive off and get charged by itself and then park itself.  The car will also do diagnostics on itself.  If anything on the car is starting to fail, it will take itself to the shop and have it looked at long before it become a larger problem thus reducing the need for more drastic repairs by letting problems fester and make more problems.  Also, as we move away from petrol motors and move to all electric, we will see a reduction in car maintenance as fewer moving parts need to be serviced. Need new tires?  The car will go get it itself. This will be ground breaking.  When you are done the car will come to you from a cheap if not free parking area, fully charged and ready to go.  Do not have 220v at home?  Don’t worry about it.  At night, when power is cheaper, it will drive itself when you sleep to power up.

Once cars are allowed to drive without a human driver, parking, traffic, breakdowns and range anxiety will be a thing of the past. The need to even know how to drive will drop.  Taxis (however taxis will be know by in 10 years) will autonomous and far cheaper then today.  Many people who live in urban area’s may not even bother owning a car in even higher numbers then we see today.

This utopia will not happen all at once.  Soon, laws will be passed that will allow autonomous driving in only certain places, at certain times on certain roads, but in time less restrictions will be imposed until the next level is reached with car can drive themselves, again with certain restrictions.  I can imagine a time in 5 years or sooner where those who work in a large corporate campus will be able to allow employees to have cars drive autonomously and take advantage of new capabilities I outlined above. I’m not sure how Mountain View will feel about this (although it might be a Sacramento decision) but I can see this happening on the Google campus… soon.

{UPDATE}  We have a response from the NYT.  Reading it now..

In John’s post titled Stalled Out on Tesla’s Electric Highway, he claims that the range of the Model S is so bad, that he had to turn down the heater, drive at 54 and at one point call for a tow truck.  Now here is the funny part, data logging was turned on the test car he was giving and it was MORE then clear, they John did everything just short of disconnecting the battery cables to insure the car would not perform up to standards.  In the past, there would have been no way to ever know what really happened, so you have to take the reporters word and the fact they are with the Times, you would think you could depend on that word.  Well clearly not!

Elon wrong a repost post titled A Most Peculiar Test Drive where he take apart John’s post point by point using data collected from the car directly. Lets have a look taken from Elon’s post…

Here is a summary of the key facts:

• As the State of Charge log shows, the Model S battery never ran out of energy at any time, including when Broder called the flatbed truck.

• The final leg of his trip was 61 miles and yet he disconnected the charge cable when the range display stated 32 miles. He did so expressly against the advice of Tesla personnel and in obvious violation of common sense.

• In his article, Broder claims that “the car fell short of its projected range on the final leg.” Then he bizarrely states that the screen showed “Est. remaining range: 32 miles” and the car traveled “51 miles,” contradicting his own statement (see images below). The car actually did an admirable job exceeding its projected range. Had he not insisted on doing a nonstop 61-mile trip while staring at a screen that estimated half that range, all would have been well. He constructed a no-win scenario for any vehicle, electric or gasoline.

• On that leg, he drove right past a public charge station while the car repeatedly warned him that it was very low on range.

• Cruise control was never set to 54 mph as claimed in the article, nor did he limp along at 45 mph. Broder in fact drove at speeds from 65 mph to 81 mph for a majority of the trip and at an average cabin temperature setting of 72 F.

• At the point in time that he claims to have turned the temperature down, he in fact turned the temperature up to 74 F.

• The charge time on his second stop was 47 mins, going from -5 miles (reserve power) to 209 miles of Ideal or 185 miles of EPA Rated Range, not 58 mins as stated in the graphic attached to his article. Had Broder not deliberately turned off the Supercharger at 47 mins and actually spent 58 mins Supercharging, it would have been virtually impossible to run out of energy for the remainder of his stated journey.

• For his first recharge, he charged the car to 90%. During the second Supercharge, despite almost running out of energy on the prior leg, he deliberately stopped charging at 72%. On the third leg, where he claimed the car ran out of energy, he stopped charging at 28%. Despite narrowly making each leg, he charged less and less each time. Why would anyone do that?

• The above helps explain a unique peculiarity at the end of the second leg of Broder’s trip. When he first reached our Milford, Connecticut Supercharger, having driven the car hard and after taking an unplanned detour through downtown Manhattan to give his brother a ride, the display said “0 miles remaining.” Instead of plugging in the car, he drove in circles for over half a mile in a tiny, 100-space parking lot. When the Model S valiantly refused to die, he eventually plugged it in. On the later legs, it is clear Broder was determined not to be foiled again.

As you can see, its more then clear the Broder had an agenda, or he is pretty clueless about electric cars, either way, the evidence is pretty damning.  I have yet to hear anything from NYT about this.  I would expect a retraction at the very least as well as Broder getting canned. That or perhaps all this data that Elon is releasing could itself be fabricated, but right now, the evidence seems to be pointing to bad reporter. I’m REALLY interested to hear John’s reply to this. But if Elon’s data is correct, the what is really concerning is someone would go to such extents to make an electric car fail in a test.  Makes you wonder if either he does not understand electric cars or he has an agenda.  Elon wondered that as well.

We assumed that the reporter would be fair and impartial, as has been our experience with The New York Times, an organization that prides itself on journalistic integrity. As a result, we did not think to read his past articles and were unaware of his outright disdain for electric cars. We were played for a fool and as a result, let down the cause of electric vehicles. For that, I am deeply sorry.

However, this is only one aspect of the story that I find interesting.  When you look at the data, it’s really interesting.  If the day ever comes I can afford a model S, I would want every little bit of tracking turned on.  I want to know charging, power consumption over various movement attributes; acceleration, cruise regenerative breaking, 220v vs 110c charging, etc… During a visit to the Tesla plant when I first saw the very first Model S still in build, I was enticed by the large table display in the car. I would LOVE to have this detailed data right there on the screen. I do remember asking if there would be an SDK so coders could write apps for such things.  I was told; ‘Perhaps… “.

One thing you may notice is the graphs are pretty rudimentary. I would LOVE to redesign this and write a more intuitive and dynamic display where drivers like me can see instantly how my driving habits affect positively and negatively on the cars performance.  I remember I rented a Prius last year and loved playing with it as I drove, trying to squeeze every amp I could.  I think all electric cars should have super detailed data, not just ones turned on for reporters.

Given all the data cars are collecting now, not just electrics, when should we be worried about our privacy?  I have no issue with it, but I bet you a tonne that John’s does right now.

The battery can be fully drained simply by parking the vehicle too long without charging it because of the vehicles’ always-on systems running quietly in the background and using minuscule amounts of power over the hours and days. For a Tesla Roadster, this can happen over the course of 11 weeks, less if the battery is not fully charged when the car is parked.

“Either these issues will be resolved by the time it’s ready, Tesla will be gone by then, or I’ll most likely give up my spot and get a refund,”

I have lots of electric equipment that run on batteries, esp my laptops and have drained them almost dead and never was the batter ‘bricked’ because the battery is smart enough to protect itself.  I would HAVE to think Tesla thought of this and has systems in place to protect the over 8,000 batteries that makes up the cars powerplant.  Something did not add up.  Turns out I was right.

Telsa came out with its own blog post challenging some of the statements made by DeGusta saying that; yes you can drain the car dead so that you cannot charge is normally, however, a simple reset of the battery pack will take care of this and then a full recharge.  Hardly the $40,000 replacement cost DeGusta claims. Tesla went further to rebuke DeGusta point by point.  From Tesla.

Of the many pleasures that Tesla owners have, one of the most appreciated is nearly worry-free maintenance of their vehicles. As an owner, you no longer have to worry about constant oil changes, exhaust checks, or spark plug replacements. You can drive it for many years by simply plugging it in when needed, and performing maintenance once a year. If anything goes wrong, call us. We’re always happy to hear from our owners. Tesla routinely provides exceptional service that is above and beyond what people have come to expect.

In return, we ask that you remember to charge it. A plugged-in Tesla is not only charging its battery, it is also keeping key systems within the car functioning properly. Tesla owners around the world keep their cars charged on a daily basis without any issues at all. If ever the battery in your Tesla runs low, the car is designed to let you know with repeated visual and audible warnings. If you continue to ignore the warnings, they will persist and increase. The vehicle also protects the battery itself by communicating with other systems in the car to conserve energy when the state of charge gets too low. Starting with Roadster 2.0, owners can also elect for their car to contact Tesla headquarters once the state of charge falls below a specified level, and we can then contact the owner.

Even in cases of neglect, the latest Tesla batteries are industry leaders. The earliest Roadsters will take over two months to discharge if parked at a 50 percent charge without being plugged in. From that starting point, Tesla has consistently innovated and improved our battery technology. For example, a Model S battery parked with 50 percent charge would approach full discharge only after about 12 months. Model S batteries also have the ability to protect themselves as they approach very low charge levels by going into a “deep sleep” mode that lowers the loss even further. A Model S will not allow its battery to fall below about 5 percent charge. At that point the car can still sit for many months. Of course you can drive a Model S to 0 percent charge, but even in that circumstance, if you plug it in within 30 days, the battery will recover normally.

I have to say DeGusta claims are disingenuous or he has a basic misconception of how batteries work. I think my favorite analagy came from Sam Jaffe explains at the Clean Energy Blog: as read on VentureBeat

However, to imply that the Tesla Roadster has a fundamental design flaw because of the nature of electrochemistry is like saying that Chrysler has a fundamental design flaw because its engines will be damaged if you drain all the oil out and then drive cross-country.

But BMW was with their newest offering with the electricE.  And this is what I wanted to see.  And the bloody thing was locked and they did not have the key!!  WTH?  So there goes my story, but I did notice one thing about the car, and then noticed the same with with the Chevy Volt when I looked at it.  WHY do electric cars that mimic normal car designs have a high water line?  It looks really bad.  This is especially true with the BMW.   WHY?

Its a shame.

A two seater car

I am back from the holidays and am catching up on CES 2011 news. A great amount of gadgets where shown but this ‘car’ caught my eye initially.

Shown at last year’s World Expo Shanghai, General Motors brought their EN-V (Electric Networked Vehicle) concept to CES this year. Sure the design is odd, but when and where can I take a test drive?

GM news announcement: EN-Vs Impress Media at Consumer Electronics Show